Judul : Arctic sea ice may well be gone by September 2017
link : Arctic sea ice may well be gone by September 2017
Arctic sea ice may well be gone by September 2017
Sea surface temperature anomalies are well above 8°C (14.4°F) in several parts of the Arctic Ocean.
The image on the right shows sea surface temperature anomalies from 1961-1990 for the Arctic (60°N - 90°N) on August 2, 2017.
Global sea ice extent is at a record low for the time of the year, as illustrated by the graph below, by Wipneus. Lower sea ice extent means that less sunlight is reflected back into space.
Arctic sea ice extent in 2017 is shrinking along a path much similar to the years 2012, 2016 and 2007, when sea ice reached 1st, 2nd and 3rd place, respectively, regarding lowest extent.While sea ice extent may look similar to these other three years, sea ice thickness has fallen dramatically over the years, as illustrated by the image below, showing Arctic sea ice thickness (in m) in July 31, 2012 (left) versus thickness on July 31, 2017 (right).
One of the reasons for this dramatic shrinking of the thicker sea ice is the ever warmer water getting pushed into the Arctic Ocean along the Gulf Stream. This is melting the sea ice from below.
Warming of the Arctic Ocean heats up the air over the Arctic Ocean, as illustrated by the image below.
On average, surface temperatures over the Arctic Ocean have been more than 2.5°C (or 4.5°F) warmer than in 1981-2010. The warmer air is now melting the sea ice from above, as temperatures over the Arctic have risen above the freezing point.
High temperatures over the Arctic Ocean means that precipitation no longer takes the form of snow, but instead falls in the form of rain.
The image below shows trends for both Arctic and Antarctic sea ice area pointing downward.
When looking at sea ice volume, zero sea ice in September 2017 is within the margins of the trendline below on the right.
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| [ Arctic sea ice, gone by Sept. 2017? ] |
The low sea ice volume means that there is very little sea ice left to act as a buffer this year. Therefore, a huge amount of heat will not be able to be consumed this year in the process of melting ice and will instead speed up warming of water of the Arctic Ocean.
Less sea ice additionally means that less sunlight will be reflected back into space, and this heat will instead further speed up Arctic warming.
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Where can all this extra heat go? Sea ice is expected to start sealing off much of the surface of the Arctic Ocean by the end of September 2017, which will make it harder for heat to escape the Arctic Ocean by entering the atmosphere.The danger is that much of the extra heat will instead reach sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean that contain huge amounts of methane in currently still frozen hydrates.
The image on the right shows that methane reached levels as high as 2583 ppb on July 31, 2017.
The image also shows high methane levels over Antarctica where hydrate destabilization also appears to be taking place, as discussed in an earlier post.
The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as described at the Climate Plan.
Links
• Climate Plan
http://ift.tt/2hoyCKz
• 10°C or 18°F warmer by 2021?
http://ift.tt/2qdCiok
• Abrupt Warming - How Much And How Fast?
http://ift.tt/2u2xfGM
• Accelerating growth in CO₂ levels in the atmosphere
http://ift.tt/2pxssul
• Feedbacks
http://ift.tt/2sGFOWX
• Extinction
http://ift.tt/2hoBTcK
• Methane Erupting From Arctic Ocean Seafloor
http://ift.tt/2o00Rm2
• Warning of mass extinction of species, including humans, within one decade
http://ift.tt/2oDPxix
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