Judul : As El Niño sets in, will global biodiversity collapse in 2019?
link : As El Niño sets in, will global biodiversity collapse in 2019?
As El Niño sets in, will global biodiversity collapse in 2019?
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| [ Will global biodiversity collapse in 2019? ] |
A recent study found upper heat tolerance limits in plants of 23.7°C. This temperature is about 10°C higher than the temperature in the year 1750.
Last time temperatures that high were reached was during the PETM, 252 million years ago, also know as the Great Dying as some 95% of species known from fossils went extinct.
Moreover, extinction will already occur far earlier than when upper tolerance levels are reached. The study concludes that "loss of one species can make more species disappear (a process known as ‘co-extinction’), and possibly bring entire systems to an unexpected, sudden regime shift, or even total collapse." Taking co-extinctions into account, the study puts global diversity collapse at around 5°C of heating.
In the top image on the right, monthly NASA Land+Ocean temperature data 2017-October 2018 are adjusted, and a polynomial trend is added, showing how a 5°C rise in temperature could occur very rapidly, i.e. by September 2019.The second image on the right is from an earlier post that contains more background on the adjustment of NASA data and the need for a polynomial trend.
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| [ El Niño sets in ] |
As El Niño sets in, the odds of a rapid global biodiversity collapse are rising.
Large methane releases from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean could also be triggered by earthquakes. The image below shows a Magnitude 6.8 earthquake that occurred near Greenland on November 9, 2018, and subsequent M5.2, M4.6 and M4.4 earthquakes.
The danger of isostatic rebound triggering earthquakes in the Arctic Ocean that can in turn destabilize methane hydrates is discussed in more detail at this page.
The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as described at the Climate Plan.
Links
• Co-extinctions annihilate planetary life during extreme environmental change, by Giovanni Strona and Corey Bradshaw
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-35068-1
• Doomsday by 2021?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2018/11/doomsday-by-2021.html
• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html
• Feedbacks
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html
• Extinction
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html
• Seismic Events
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/seismic-events.html
• Can we weather the Danger Zone?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2018/07/can-we-weather-the-danger-zone.html
• How much warmer is it now?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2018/04/how-much-warmer-is-it-now.html
• What Does Runaway Warming Look Like?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2018/10/what-does-runaway-warming-look-like.html
• Peaks Matter
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2018/08/peaks-matter.html
• Warning of mass extinction of species, including humans, within one decade
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2017/02/warning-of-mass-extinction-of-species-including-humans-within-one-decade.html
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